VAR

Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and the 'Great Moderation'

The U.S. economy has experienced a reduction in volatility since the mid-1980s. In this paper we investigate the changes in the response of the economy to an oil price shock and the role of the systematic monetary policy response in accounting for …

Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons

Existing methods for constructing confidence bands for multivariate impulse response functions may have poor coverage at long lead times when variables are highly persistent. The goal of this paper is to propose a simple method that is not pointwise …